Serious issues with feathercoin and my suggestion
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I’ve been seeing 300+ BTC orders on BTC-e these last few days, and finally the order at .36 mBTC hit and was literally vaporized. Price proceeded to tank another 10% before lo-behold another 300+ BTC order came at .32 mBTC. I believe orders such as these are mainly an attempt to stabilize the price from a person who is more heavily invested in FTC (I myself holding FTC in the 7 figure mark or at least used to).
If you notice the order book, the ratio of bids to asks is 1:8 which is insane. Usually most order books stay within +/-1 of each other.
There are 540 BTC worth of buy orders on BTC-e to drive the price down to 1/100,000 of a BTC and over 1,000 BTC worth of sell orders to drive the price up over .00070 again. Do you know what that means? It means that there is no price support at the current level besides the one artificial order for over 300 BTC that we are currently seeing.
This says several things about the feathercoin economy:
1. Feathercoins are being mined faster than people are buying, devaluing the existing feathercoins too quickly. People that realize this are trying to immediately sell their feathercoins before they lose anymore money in the hopes of switching to a different currency, or buy back in at a cheaper price effectively increasing their coins. This causes a vicious price crash.
2. Feathercoin model needs to be changed, or the coin will fail. We are mining too quickly and essentially inflation is destroying the feathercoin economy. The reward size is looking to halve by ~160 million coins, however we are barely ~30 million, meaning one of several things will happen: 1. Feathercoin will become completely worthless due to the lack of people trying to mine it due to its inflation 2. 51% attacks will occur due to a lack of security on the network for the previously mentioned reason.
I think something needs to be done such as reducing the size of the feathercoins by half. So the cutoff point is at ~80 million and not ~160 million. If you do not give early adopters an incentive to stay vested in FTC and miners incentive to stay with the network if the coins they are mining keep bleeding away value slowly due to both a lack of demand and insanely high supply, then guess what? BTC-e does not have enough decimal places to reflect how low the price will go in the near future.
That is my 2-cents. I’ve left FTC after losing far too much money and apparent lack of care/ignorance from the development team saying that the price is being ‘manipulated downward’ and FTC is worth more than what the free market is saying it is worth.
For those of you still holding, I wish you all the best of luck…
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I agree with you for the most part. Mining is not killing FTC its the difficulty. Our difficulty is too low. That is a huge incentive for miners to jump in. What I see happening is litecoin miner with their monster rigs dedicate a few days a month to mine FTC. Most of these miners push out well beyond 15mh/s. Add a few of them and you basically have a bunch of people holding a lot of FTC and no idea what to do with it. So they end up selling it at whatever price and get the BTC out of it. Beyond that I see it as a lack of knowledge on trading. A lot of people have no idea on how to trade, and buy and sell as they please and this hurts FTC. It is easy to mine 10 to 20 FTC within a few days on a mid level to an entry level system but beyond that given our current value it is easier to buy it with fiat as well. This means that people who want to get in the world of crypto usually buy a few FTC for experimenting and see how the experience is and then they eventually move on to their preferred coin.
There are some changes that definitely need to be made, but some of the changes you suggested are a little too harsh. They will not go down well with the FTC community. I think we need to start educating people on how to handle crypto currencies properly. We also need to be more active on these exchanges. BTC-e is a decent exchange but I dont see them helping out FTC in any way for a while. That exchange is meant for BTC, LTC, PPC and NMC. Since those coins are traded against the USD it seems beneficial for them to support those in whatever way they can. Either we voice our concerns to BTC-e collectively or move on to an exchange that will provide us the support we need.
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Maybe I’m wrong but I see the mystery 300BTC orders as an attempt to soak up cheap FTC. Do you think it’s having more of a price leveling effect?
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[quote name=“pritech” post=“54417” timestamp=“1390504390”]
Maybe I’m wrong but I see the mystery 300BTC orders as an attempt to soak up cheap FTC. Do you think it’s having more of a price leveling effect?
[/quote]It really depends on whether it is able to compete with the sell orders. It may level out the price to about 0.0037 but then you have take into account that once the price rises, sellers are going to seize that price increase and sell their FTC. To make it really work the buy orders need to be a little higher than the sell orders, f we are to see any increases in the price.
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Difficulty crept way down the other day, now it is inching upwards. That is how the supply is throttled - it is not by “reducing the number of coins”. With that said, I am happy for the low difficulties as long as it lasts.
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After the fail at 0,00036 feathercoin now again get buy support at the low of the day. This makes perfect sense. We really need to see 0,00036 and break up to the upside. Than for sure we will have a rally.
Yesterday i said a fail of 0,00036 would have a quick move towards 0,00030. Good we did not hit that mark. Now we are range bound between the support fail at 0,00036 and todays low at 0,00030.
We are currently trading at 0,00035 and an attempt on 0,00036-37 should tell much on if we break out or not.
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[quote name=“estrabd” post=“54433” timestamp=“1390505741”]
Difficulty crept way down the other day, now it is inching upwards. That is how the supply is throttled - it is not by “reducing the number of coins”.[/quote]No, not really. The block reward is the same, every block. The mining difficulty does not change the “supply.”
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[quote name=“pritech” post=“54417” timestamp=“1390504390”]
Maybe I’m wrong but I see the mystery 300BTC orders as an attempt to soak up cheap FTC. Do you think it’s having more of a price leveling effect?
[/quote]That’s exactly right.
What you’re seeing is called “Price discovery”, and it’s a perfectly healthy part of the market.
There’s nothing wrong with the number of coins being mined, it has remained steady-state since the start. The only way that “too many coins” could be mined is if people were manipulating the difficulty like they used to be able to before the difficulty adjustment. This isn’t possible any more. The price correctly reflects the amount of inflation, and will likely continue to do so. That seems perfectly normal, and the only thing changing it will do is screw with the price.
I’m not sure what’s wrong with someone saying that the price is being manipulated downward when it’s obviously being manipulated downward, but maybe you could help me understand why someone should paint a rosy picture of the market pressures when it’s clearly a dog-eat-dog world out there?
[quote]
I’ve left FTC after losing far too much money
[/quote]Ahh, now the truth comes out. There’s nothing wrong with the coin, it’s your expectations that need adjustment! First of all speculating in crypto-currencies requires a great deal of understanding of market dynamics. Yes, decreasing the inflation rate would change the price, you’re right about that, but you failed to actually provide an argument as to why it should be done. There’s no evidence to suggest that Feathercoins will ever become worthless, in fact the price trend suggests the opposite. Have you SEEN how much BTC has gained against the dollar, and compared it to how much FTC has lost against BTC? The numbers simply don’t compare. As for 51% attacks, much discussion on how to address that is presently taking place, and if you’re not a part of the solution, you’re definitely part of the problem. Perhaps you should get involved in advancing the security of the network?
Secondly, the only way you could have possibly lost money is if you bought high, and sold low. Those of us who bought low don’t have that problem at all, in fact everyone who has held for more than 4 months at any price point has made a ton of money! Have you seen what the price of BTC has done against the USD? If you bought $100 dollars of FTC back in July, it would be worth over $500 today! That’s crazy growth! You’re complaining because another asset-class out-performed FTC, namely BTC… and if you didn’t expect that to happen then you’re DEFINITELY trading with your eyes closed.
No, there’s nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the coin, the price trend is strongly upwards, and BTC is poised for another breakout. The market, as you correctly pointed out, is heavily manipulated, and you played into that manipulation and lost.
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Thanks to all of you - loved to read this.
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[quote name=“Undone” post=“54438” timestamp=“1390507503”]
[quote author=estrabd link=topic=7152.msg54433#msg54433 date=1390505741]
Difficulty crept way down the other day, now it is inching upwards. That is how the supply is throttled - it is not by “reducing the number of coins”.[/quote]No, not really. The block reward is the same, every block. The mining difficulty does not change the “supply.”
[/quote]What I mean is that it reduces the frequency at which blocks are found - at least this is my understanding. If I am wrong, please correct me. Thank you.
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[quote name=“estrabd” post=“54452” timestamp=“1390510528”]
[quote author=Undone link=topic=7152.msg54438#msg54438 date=1390507503]
[quote author=estrabd link=topic=7152.msg54433#msg54433 date=1390505741]
Difficulty crept way down the other day, now it is inching upwards. That is how the supply is throttled - it is not by “reducing the number of coins”.[/quote]No, not really. The block reward is the same, every block. The mining difficulty does not change the “supply.”
[/quote][b]What I mean is that it reduces the frequency at which blocks are found[/b] - at least this is my understanding. If I am wrong, please correct me. Thank you.
[/quote]No, the bolded is not correct. It merely reduces your odds as a miner of solving the block.
Feathercoin has a block target of 2.5 minutes. This means that the network expects a block to be solved in exactly 2.5 minutes. As the network hashrate goes up or down due to more/less mining being done on the network as a whole, the difficulty level is recalculated (essentially) every 126 blocks. At which time, the difficulty is either raised or lowered so that the target time for block solution is back to 2.5 minutes.
Thus, as a function of average, blocks are solved (or as you phrased it, found) essentially every 2.5 minutes, at a block reward of 200 coins per block. Now, it is true that the block reward will halve every 840,000 blocks. But that won’t happen for roughly another 685,000 blocks. :)
**Edit** To maybe speak more plainly to your original intent though, what an increase in difficulty means for a miner [i]who hasn’t increased or decreased his own personal hashrate[/i] is that you earn less coins per day (when mining in a pool - with solo mining, you also statistically will earn less coins also because your odds of block solution go down).
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[quote name=“motherlode1” post=“54416” timestamp=“1390504201”]
I agree with you for the most part. Mining is not killing FTC its the difficulty. Our difficulty is too low.[/quote]Hey let me show you something.
Point to the FTC on the chart:
https://www.multipool.us/multiport_stats.php
You know the last time I saw FTC on that chart?
November 29th 2013 at 1:35pm.
FWIW, multipool does it’s switching based on what coin is easiest to mine at that current moment. That it hasn’t even made an appearance for a few minutes in nearly two months on the switch means it’s not even in the 5 easiest coins to mine. And that’s not of all the altcoins, that’s the ones with the highest network hashrate.
FTC is not too easy to mine. If it was, I’d be on it right now.
[quote]It is easy to mine 10 to 20 FTC within a few days on a mid level to an entry level system but beyond that given our current value it is easier to buy it with fiat as well. This means that people who want to get in the world of crypto usually buy a few FTC for experimenting and see how the experience is and then they eventually move on to their preferred coin.[/quote]
No, the people that are arbitrage trading with mass quantities of coin are doing it with DOGE. And there’s two camps to DOGE. People flooding the exchanges with coins in order to convert to BTC and from there to whatever else, and people buying them for their stashes and giving 10-30% of their holdings away. It’s really weird. But the point is, the people without dedicated rigs are neither of these groups in regards to your observation of FTC users. If they’re mining 20FTC and it takes a week, they’re not rushing to an exchange in order to make $6 after paying $10 in power. They’re not ruining the market at all because they’re not a participant in it, they’re looking at these coins like “omg next BTC” and just holding them.
[quote]I think we need to start educating people on how to handle crypto currencies properly.[/quote]
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[quote name=“HopeStillFlies” post=“54457” timestamp=“1390512714”]
FWIW, multipool does it’s switching based on what coin is easiest to mine at that current moment. That it hasn’t even made an appearance for a few minutes in nearly two months on the switch means it’s not even in the 5 easiest coins to mine. And that’s not of all the altcoins, that’s the ones with the highest network hashrate.[/quote]No, I don’t believe that’s accurate. At multipool.us, they have a calculation that combines the factor of “how many coins can be mined” (meaning hashrate…just to make a long story short) and the trading value at that very moment of the coin. I believe that is how they calculate the figure they call “profitability” in their charts.
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[quote name=“Undone” post=“54463” timestamp=“1390515420”]
[quote author=HopeStillFlies link=topic=7152.msg54457#msg54457 date=1390512714]
FWIW, multipool does it’s switching based on what coin is easiest to mine at that current moment. That it hasn’t even made an appearance for a few minutes in nearly two months on the switch means it’s not even in the 5 easiest coins to mine. And that’s not of all the altcoins, that’s the ones with the highest network hashrate.[/quote]No, I don’t believe that’s accurate. At multipool.us, they have a calculation that combines the factor of “how many coins can be mined” (meaning hashrate…just to make a long story short) and the trading value at that very moment of the coin. I believe that is how they calculate the figure they call “profitability” in their charts.
[/quote]That’s correct. It’s not just hashrate and trading value… it’s more like (Price per coin * number of coins per block) / difficulty. The block generation size has to be accounted for too.
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Love this thread guys. Looks like its buy FTC time again by the sounds of this discussion. :)
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If anyone ever wonders, where does all the money come from that I[insert your name] have made these past few months, look no further than the OP.
OP don’t bother buying feathercoin next time around just wire your cash directly to me, (is that too nasty, I really don’t care, every few months you see a few jump ship like the OP and then cry a little later, thank you for your money OP)
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[quote name=“Pyxis” post=“54490” timestamp=“1390521713”]
If anyone ever wonders, where does all the money come from that I[insert your name] have made these past few months, look no further than the OP.OP don’t bother buying feathercoin next time around just wire your cash directly to me, (is that too nasty, I really don’t care, every few months you see a few jump ship like the OP and then cry a little later, thank you for your money OP)
[/quote]A VERY astute observation! Thank you for reminding us that for every dollar the OP lost, someone else made that dollar. It’s a zero-sum game, and just listening to one side of the argument (the guy who traded poorly) won’t help you to understand the entire game (how trade profitably).
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Love this thread x 2.
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Nice discussion. I’m not wild about the potential float or O/S (or O/C in this case) but that’s a narrow-minded view I guess. What IS a supply number when there’s no applicable, true ‘demand’ defined just yet? Uses are abound…
FTC’s future, take your pick - won’t take much (considering the bright side of these phenomenons as it pertains to our growth):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_effect
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clapotis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_condensationFTC is much more than a coin. And it’s not a currency, hence the current market perception. FTC is the newest commodity called “Innovation.” And naturally there is doubt attached to that though this perceived risk can be mitigated. All it takes is one proprietary hedge or add-on…whether this applies to current FTC coins in circulation or those not yet mined…
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The lack of knowledge on this board is astounding, most of the posters are just completely wrong and I can’t even begin to formulate an argument against them. Difficulty has nothing to do with the supply, and price has no impact on difficulty. FTC is a fork of BTC, so there is plenty of information already available for you to educate yourselves, there is no excuse for not understanding how the system works, and even less of an excuse for spreading false information.
To those of you posting about how difficulty throttles the supply of FTC and how price affects the difficulty/supply, please do your research. I’m serious, it’s your money so at least do some research. And to those of you listening to these people and concluding now is the best time to buy, I suggest the same.
Won’t take you more than 20 minutes to permanently understand how you are investing your money…
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty
