What is your prediction? - Feathercoin Adoption Rate.
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I’ve just been looking at the change in Feathercoin miners hash rate / difficulty, Bitcoin adoption, Feathercoin Forum members and visitor numbers, to try to predict the likely Feathercoin adoption rates.
This is obviously the very earliest time where a trend is visible, through the smog of birth.
Find attached my chart of Millions of downloads of the Feathercoin wallet. At this stage I am predicting the millionth Feathercoin wallet download to be on 16th September 2014.
[attachment deleted by admin]
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I predict …
[img]http://nbry.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/s-curve.gif[/img]
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I’m pretty sure it will rise a lot higher than it is right now.
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The interpolation coefficients of both curves depends on the awareness more than anything else. And awaraness depends on us. Therefore, if awareness is better supported for FTC by FTC owners compared to usual technology users, my prediction is the curve given by Tuck Fheman but with a more linear regime in the middle…
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The reason I am confident my prediction (will need tweeking) may be correct is. The Bitcoin protocol is a self aligning system. All we have to do is make sure the infrastructure is in place, quick enough, to prevent it failing.
That infrastructure is also developing fast and is already “viable”, so now Bitcoin, Litecoin and Feathercoin have established themselves beyond the point where they are likely to fail…
The LAST thing we need is to generate any extra publicity. (As Feathercoin infrastructure developers)
The crypto-currency protocol is an example of a self aligning system which has been mathematical tuned to be introduce and build its own infrastructure.
As my chart attempts to show, once adoption starts it accelerates. I have not included my medium and long term charts, which would follow Tuck Fheman’s adoption curve.
The next prediction is, the date half the world human population have a wallet …
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[quote name=“wrapper0feather” post=“46018” timestamp=“1387414493”]
Find attached my chart of Millions of downloads of the Feathercoin wallet.
[/quote]Ohhhhh… yeahhhh…
Sorry… I have a thing for graphs and data analysis…
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[quote name=“atlantik” post=“46073” timestamp=“1387438902”]
The interpolation coefficients of both curves…
[/quote]mmmm… Interpolation… Coefficients… *drools a little*
Ok, I’ll stop now… =^-^=
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[quote name=“Calem” post=“46124” timestamp=“1387454174”]
[quote author=atlantik link=topic=6188.msg46073#msg46073 date=1387438902]
The interpolation coefficients of both curves…
[/quote]mmmm… Interpolation… Coefficients… *drools a little*
Ok, I’ll stop now… =^-^=
[/quote]
;D ;D ;D -
miners hash rate may be a huge variable. I expect this is earlier than this time.
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As well as awareness we need understanding. People need to come away from Feathercoin feeling inspired and full of ideas. What you get from other crypto forums is confusion.
I see this whole problem with the banking crisis as being one of lack of responsibility. We outsourced our wealth management because we couldn’t be bothered to look after our own money and now we are paying the price, literally. Blockchains as currency (the initial phase) is a high stakes environment and will reward anyone prepared to learn and take this responsibility. It’s our job to inspire and educate them I think.
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[quote name=“lizhi” post=“46148” timestamp=“1387457372”]
miners hash rate may be a huge variable. I expect this is earlier than this time.
[/quote]It won’t be that big a variable, as the difficulty adjusts are supposed to keep the block creation time relatively constant. We’re only 13.89 days behind, and that was pretty much caused by the difficulty traps we experienced way back.
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[quote name=“chrisj” post=“46162” timestamp=“1387462283”]
As well as awareness we need understanding. People need to come away from Feathercoin feeling inspired and full of ideas. What you get from other crypto forums is confusion.I see this whole problem with the banking crisis as being one of lack of responsibility. We outsourced our wealth management because we couldn’t be bothered to look after our own money and now we are paying the price, literally. Blockchains as currency (the initial phase) is a high stakes environment and will reward anyone prepared to learn and take this responsibility. It’s our job to inspire and educate them I think.
[/quote]I agree with Chris said. Situation on the market ,Coins are returning to the hands of IT engineers from investors. Welcome them go home. We are recalled.
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[quote name=“atlantik” post=“46146” timestamp=“1387456795”]
;D ;D ;D
[/quote]Oh btw… Here’s your +1 rep for using Interpolation and Coefficients in the same sentence.
=^-^=
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[quote name=“Calem” post=“46383” timestamp=“1387522797”]
[quote author=atlantik link=topic=6188.msg46146#msg46146 date=1387456795]
;D ;D ;D
[/quote]Oh btw… Here’s your +1 rep for using Interpolation and Coefficients in the same sentence.
=^-^=
[/quote]Thanks a lot ;) ::)
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That’s ok. think of it as motivation to contribute :D
