Posting in the Feathercoin forum about crypto currencies, chances are we can assume two things about each other: we think crypto currencies have a future of some significance and we’re not short term speculators. While these two statements are obviously linked, I’ll accept the former, a priori, for now and focus on the latter. I’ll freely admit to having no more hard data than my own observations and opinions, so take all of this as my speculation.
Speculation is the key word here: people are buying crypto currencies, BTC/LTC especially, speculatively, instead of as usable currency; this statement is neutral, and several possible conclusions can be drawn from it.
Negative: Tulip Bulbs, South Seas, Real Estate etc. People have thrown the word bubble around extensively as the crypto currency concept has reached mainstream critical mass. While I question if BTC really behaves like an unregulated stock, there is no doubt that even now with its mainstream exposure, it’s still dismissed by most people - something that can greatly affect it in its current state.
Positive: People are buying speculatively, but they’re buying, and with them comes the retailers. More goods can be bought than ever, and people lacking confidence in their own government are always seeking alternatives - Cyprus could not have been a better indicator of BTC’s appeal. I’ve observed the reaction of crypto currencies in general to be similar to dot-com era companies: some people are buying in to whatever they can get, and many are circling around, unsure about the lack of a ‘physical’ product.
Three Final Thoughts:
Not all coins will survive - Some may argue otherwise, but I agree with previous posters that a few coins will come out on top; I don’t feel confident about how they’ll coexist, but I think people downplay how regional norms might affect coin adoption. It wouldn’t be surprising that, through some strange social or corporate quirk, different coins are accepted more or less frequently in different regions.
Don’t underestimate investors - We don’t definitively know who owns X bitcoin, but hedge funds, VCs et al. have been investing in them. Q4, ending December 31st, and Q1, ending March 31st, may affect crypto prices in the short term. Hedge funds are notorious (as a recent Bloomberg piece pointed out) for manipulating their numbers towards the end of the year, so as to appear to have huge growth. I’m generally over anxious, so I may be blowing this out of proportion, but those dates are worth watching.
LTC as silver - LTC has exploded these past two months. The growth, coinciding with BTC (obviously), has made many people excited, but I feel a bit more cautious. Rather than LTC being silver (which , against gold, still has intrinsic and popular value), it can be seen as a spinoff of BTC (in the eyes of speculators). If LTC’s dramatic price increase is a function of the value of BTC (which seems to have a far deeper value in the present) then its price can be seen as a more pure form of hoarding or speculation. It will also be interesting to see if BTC price has an effect on LTC price, but not vice versa, in the long term.
Again, these are just (believe it or not the short version of) my thoughts on the subject. Feel free to accept, reject, or ignore, no hard feelings. :)