[quote name=“kaybo” post=“54531” timestamp=“1390536857”]
[quote author=Kevlar link=topic=7023.msg54491#msg54491 date=1390522272]
[quote author=kaybo link=topic=7023.msg54489#msg54489 date=1390521188]
Yes, 6-12 months is very long to me.
[/quote]
The shorter a timeframe you’re projecting on, the less information you can use to predict the trend, and the more inaccurate your resulting projections will be.
Let me ask you a question: Do you think a gallon of milk will cost more or less in USD in 6 months? Don’t know? Neither do I. What about in 60 years? That’s easy to project: The price of a gallon of milk has steadily increased over the years as the purchasing power of USD has steadily decreased. Unless something fundamental changes, a gallon of milk will almost certainly cost more in USD in 60 years, if only because USD is inflating, and the trend of steadily increasing the price is easy to see, and easy to understand.
If an asset class is designed to fulfill a role over several hundreds of years, why would you measure it’s performance on a tiny time scale, and then project that over a long one? It makes no sense at all.
[quote]
Hopefully, price do go up along with difficulty.
[/quote]
Difficulty goes up with price, not the other way around. Difficulty is a lagging indicator of price. When the price goes up, more miners get into the game, and difficulty moves up. If this happens in synchronicity, the difficulty rises to justify the price, otherwise the price comes back down. If the price increases, the difficulty MUST increase to justify the price.
Since ASIC’s represent a sunk cost for investors, and investors want a ROI, ASIC owners must sell their mined coins at an ever increasing price to maintain profitability. As more investors get ASICs, more will be looking to sell them. Since the generation rate is fixed, and the reward is forever decreasing as difficulty decreases, the price MUST go up to maintain profitability for investors. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, and saying, “I don’t care about 6 months from now, I want the price to go up NOW.” just ignores the very well established trends and economic pressures which succeed in driving the price up.
[/quote]
Sorry for your misunderstanding. “6-12 months is very long to me” isn’t what I intended to say. As I joined in the Crypto currency hype train, time seems to go very slow. This applies the same when looking at a clock. We all know the trend will be predictable in the long term. I’m curious how feathercoin will be in few months after getting paranoid by reading articles on scrypt asic.
If I buy a $250 graphics card, I will get my ROI after 3 months and keep on mining. But, What if scrypt asic take over? Do we sell our rigs and call it a day? Sorry for thinking irrationally. I’m getting my paycheck next week. Have to make my final decision. Buy[/quote]