Sequential blocks..
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I’ve noticed a few sequential blocks in d2’s pool. Is this some kind of anomaly? I know it can’t be a bad thing…lol
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Its called very good luck. We found them before anyone else did.
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[quote]Its called very good luck. We found them before anyone else did.[/quote]
Really good luck indeed… I recall d2 mention something about the first one, so my thinking is 4 would be really rare…
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Finding a hash to mine a block is a statistical probability. Any statistical probability, no matter how small, over a long enough time frame is guaranteed to happen eventually. As time approaches infinity, the odds approach 1.
It’s like flipping a coin: If you flip the coin and it comes up heads 99 times in a row, what’s the odds of it coming up heads on the 100th flip? Answer: 50%. Same thing with a pool: If a pool with 25% of the hashing power comes up with 99 blocks in a row, what are the odds of it finding the 100th block in a row? Answer: 25%.
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[quote]Finding a hash to mine a block is a statistical probability. Any statistical probability, no matter how small, over a long enough time frame is guaranteed to happen eventually. As time approaches infinity, the odds approach 1.
It’s like flipping a coin: If you flip the coin and it comes up heads 99 times in a row, what’s the odds of it coming up heads on the 100th flip? Answer: 50%. Same thing with a pool: If a pool with 25% of the hashing power comes up with 99 blocks in a row, what are the odds of it finding the 100th block in a row? Answer: 25%.[/quote]
That makes sense… If we get anymore though, I’m going back to believing it was magic…lol…jk
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[quote name=“Kevlar” post=“9234” timestamp=“1370313765”]
Finding a hash to mine a block is a statistical probability. Any statistical probability, no matter how small, over a long enough time frame is guaranteed to happen eventually. As time approaches infinity, the odds approach 1.
[/quote]
Although your post is generally correct and a good explanation, I have to take issue with this statement. Nothing is ever guaranteed to happen. Yes, the limit might be 1, but probability never, ever reaches 1. It’s possible, although considerably unlikely, that one could mine for all time and never find a block. -
[quote name=“Aldanga” post=“9252” timestamp=“1370319799”]
[quote author=Kevlar link=topic=1184.msg9234#msg9234 date=1370313765]
Finding a hash to mine a block is a statistical probability. Any statistical probability, no matter how small, over a long enough time frame is guaranteed to happen eventually. As time approaches infinity, the odds approach 1.
[/quote]
Although your post is generally correct and a good explanation, I have to take issue with this statement. Nothing is ever guaranteed to happen. Yes, the limit might be 1, but probability never, ever reaches 1. It’s possible, although considerably unlikely, that one could mine for all time and never find a block.
[/quote]The point I’m making is if you stretch out that mining over an infinite timeframe, you will try ALL the possible combinations, ensuring that the probability is in fact 1.
Of course we don’t have infinite timeframes, so you’re correct that it’s never a guarantee.
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[quote]Of course it’s magic, don’t let anyone try to tell you otherwise with their fancy lingo![/quote]
We got another one, so magic it is! lol