Looks like we are stalled again
-
[quote name=“Bushstar” post=“8785” timestamp=“1370160108”]
I have no worries as I have been around for a while now and can remember mining Litecoin when it had low value. I can still mine Feathercoin, pay the electric bills and make a profit so I have no problem mining it at all.Things are as expected with the approach we took to recovery. With every difficulty change things are getting quicker.
I can now mine 100 coins a day and am in the process of expanding my setup further by another 50%. Justabitoftime is going to start mining, my challenge is to make sure my setup is bigger than his :)
[/quote]I too was around when the first alt-chains started including Litecoin.
But basing my calculations on how past alts have performed I can see the price nearing 0.0001btc to 0.0003 btc before it is “bottomed” out.
Just my view. I could be wrong.
-
Feathercoin profitability calculations are wrong, because the real Feathercoin value is near 0,002, so mine and keep your coins.
You are making a huge profit, it will be obvious in a month!
-
[quote name=“Smoothie” post=“8786” timestamp=“1370160574”]
I too was around when the first alt-chains started including Litecoin.But basing my calculations on how past alts have performed I can see the price nearing 0.0001btc to 0.0003 btc before it is “bottomed” out.
Just my view. I could be wrong.
[/quote]You’ll have to show me the calculations. From my view we are going to be just under 100% profitability after the next difficulty change. So the price seems okay where it is for now and when we hit that next difficulty change we will have more exposure, more services and more hash power.
Going forward I can see our value being at the very least 0.001.
-
Coinchoose is showing 65% profitability. I thought it is around 90% right now.
90-95% is a good target for long term stability.
-
We are 80% of litecoin. Therefore all arguments against the coin value are baseless.
-
[quote name=“Bushstar” post=“8790” timestamp=“1370164994”]
[quote author=Smoothie link=topic=1119.msg8786#msg8786 date=1370160574]
I too was around when the first alt-chains started including Litecoin.But basing my calculations on how past alts have performed I can see the price nearing 0.0001btc to 0.0003 btc before it is “bottomed” out.
Just my view. I could be wrong.
[/quote]You’ll have to show me the calculations. From my view we are going to be just under 100% profitability after the next difficulty change. So the price seems okay where it is for now and when we hit that next difficulty change we will have more exposure, more services and more hash power.
Going forward I can see our value being at the very least 0.001.
[/quote]Aside from the past price data on other alts…just looking at[size=12pt][b] lowering [/b][/size]the max difficulty change upwards by 10 times from 400% to 40% coupled with 4 times less blocks to adjust difficulty equates to 2.5 times more inflation in terms of coins.
Take current price of when the change happened 0.0007 btc / 2.5 = 0.00028 btc.
That is just a fundamental view based on the stats (new stats) of the FTC network.
Simple math really.
-
@Smotthie You’re going to hit Zeno’s paradox. Unlike the federal reserve system, inflation comes from ability to profit not ability to print. Mining is driven by both dedication to the network as an internal self motivation and from the ability make a little extra which is external profit motivation.
There will be more coins, but the population of coin miners who are in it to sell is going down. Again there’s more to be made in litecoin and bitcoin, therefore at the same time that price is dropping the hashrate is too so it will take longer to send coins to the exchange which means you can easily miss your target price.
The more they sell, the more they leave, therefore the less the price will drop. You can’t use pure quantitaive analysis on this beast. You have to look at the dynamics. Think of it like rocket fuel. Some of the mass of a space shuttle is the fuel it has to carry to take off. So you are expending energy to move fuel. As you spend fuel you have less mass to push up. We’re going to go to 0.00045 max at which point the majority of the miners will be those in for the long haul.
-
[quote name=“zerodrama” post=“8798” timestamp=“1370172742”]
@Smotthie You’re going to hit Zeno’s paradox. Unlike the federal reserve system, inflation comes from ability to profit not ability to print. Mining is driven by both dedication to the network as an internal self motivation and from the ability make a little extra which is external profit motivation.There will be more coins, but the population of coin miners who are in it to sell is going down. Again there’s more to be made in litecoin and bitcoin, therefore at the same time that price is dropping the hashrate is too so it will take longer to send coins to the exchange which means you can easily miss your target price.
The more they sell, the more they leave, therefore the less the price will drop. You can’t use pure quantitaive analysis on this beast. You have to look at the dynamics. Think of it like rocket fuel. Some of the mass of a space shuttle is the fuel it has to carry to take off. So you are expending energy to move fuel. As you spend fuel you have less mass to push up. We’re going to go to 0.00045 max at which point the majority of the miners will be those in for the long haul.
[/quote]Now that we obviously disagree let’s watch.
Keep in mind that in the thread on bitcoin talk of the hard fork I predicted the price would plummet when it was at 0.0017btc. Then a week or two later it went to well…you can look at the price yourself.
I may be wrong on this next prediction, but dont be surprised if it manifests itself.
-
@Smoothie Oh I agree as far as people doing pure quant calculations will sell at precisely those points. What I’m saying is they’re going to have a harder time on the way down. I mean sure someone who already calculated a target will prove the prediction. But going down you will see some odd happenings.
I may sell half of my holdings just to be able to play the game.
-
[quote name=“zerodrama” post=“8800” timestamp=“1370173753”]
@Smoothie Oh I agree as far as people doing pure quant calculations will sell at precisely those points. What I’m saying is they’re going to have a harder time on the way down. I mean sure someone who already calculated a target will prove the prediction. But going down you will see some odd happenings.I may sell half of my holdings just to be able to play the game.
[/quote]What are they going to have a harder time doing on the way down? I wasnt clear on what you mean
-
You can’t hit a target price without others thinking the same thing. And you need others to just bot trade or lose their nerve.
You need both short term trades and long term trades and both calculated trades and impulsive trades.You’re going to see the population of dump traders go down and be replaced by long haul traders. This is going to be an invisible wall against the price drop.
-
[quote name=“zerodrama” post=“8803” timestamp=“1370174870”]
@SmoothieYou can’t hit a target price without others thinking the same thing. And you need others to just bot trade or lose their nerve.
You need both short term trades and long term trades and both calculated trades and impulsive trades.You’re going to see the population of dump traders go down and be replaced by long haul traders. This is going to be an invisible wall against the price drop.
[/quote]I agree. Hence why i said 0.0003 to 0.0001 price. That is a big range.
-
[quote name=“Smoothie” post=“8804” timestamp=“1370175292”]
[quote author=zerodrama link=topic=1119.msg8803#msg8803 date=1370174870]
@SmoothieYou can’t hit a target price without others thinking the same thing. And you need others to just bot trade or lose their nerve.
You need both short term trades and long term trades and both calculated trades and impulsive trades.You’re going to see the population of dump traders go down and be replaced by long haul traders. This is going to be an invisible wall against the price drop.
[/quote]I agree. Hence why i said 0.0003 to 0.0001 price. That is a big range.
[/quote]I’m willing to bet 1000 LTC that we’ll hit at least .002 in the next 7 months. If interested, please drop me a PM with odds and escrow you want to use.
I could be wrong, however, with the merchant tools, continued community interest and coin direction… I like my chances. Might be willing to jump it to 2000 LTC for the right odds.
Hit me with a PM…
-
0.002 - How about this: ASICs cause a heart attack and Bitcoin falls while FTC takes off? I say we end up at least 0.01 in 6 months. Litecoin will chase us. I’m not going to wager tho, I’m shooting for the exchange bounty. The one with the 5 zeroes.
-
[quote name=“zerodrama” post=“8808” timestamp=“1370177149”]
0.002 - How about this: ASICs cause a heart attack and Bitcoin falls while FTC takes off? I say we end up at least 0.01 in 6 months. Litecoin will chase us. I’m not going to wager tho, I’m shooting for the exchange bounty. The one with the 5 zeroes.
[/quote]You are killing my action, I’m trying to make some money here. :)
-
[quote name=“justabitoftime” post=“8807” timestamp=“1370176824”]
[quote author=Smoothie link=topic=1119.msg8804#msg8804 date=1370175292]
[quote author=zerodrama link=topic=1119.msg8803#msg8803 date=1370174870]
@SmoothieYou can’t hit a target price without others thinking the same thing. And you need others to just bot trade or lose their nerve.
You need both short term trades and long term trades and both calculated trades and impulsive trades.You’re going to see the population of dump traders go down and be replaced by long haul traders. This is going to be an invisible wall against the price drop.
[/quote]I agree. Hence why i said 0.0003 to 0.0001 price. That is a big range.
[/quote]I’m willing to bet 1000 LTC that we’ll hit at least .002 in the next 7 months. If interested, please drop me a PM with odds and escrow you want to use.
I could be wrong, however, with the merchant tools, continued community interest and coin direction… I like my chances. Might be willing to jump it to 2000 LTC for the right odds.
Hit me with a PM…
[/quote]I’m not saying the price wont go there.
I’m saying before it does it will bottom out in the levels I mentioned.
No need to bet on this that is why we have the market for. lol
-
[quote name=“Smoothie” post=“8810” timestamp=“1370177603”]
[quote author=justabitoftime link=topic=1119.msg8807#msg8807 date=1370176824]
[quote author=Smoothie link=topic=1119.msg8804#msg8804 date=1370175292]
[quote author=zerodrama link=topic=1119.msg8803#msg8803 date=1370174870]
@SmoothieYou can’t hit a target price without others thinking the same thing. And you need others to just bot trade or lose their nerve.
You need both short term trades and long term trades and both calculated trades and impulsive trades.You’re going to see the population of dump traders go down and be replaced by long haul traders. This is going to be an invisible wall against the price drop.
[/quote]I agree. Hence why i said 0.0003 to 0.0001 price. That is a big range.
[/quote]I’m willing to bet 1000 LTC that we’ll hit at least .002 in the next 7 months. If interested, please drop me a PM with odds and escrow you want to use.
I could be wrong, however, with the merchant tools, continued community interest and coin direction… I like my chances. Might be willing to jump it to 2000 LTC for the right odds.
Hit me with a PM…
[/quote]I’m not saying the price wont go there.
I’m saying before it does it will bottom out in the levels I mentioned.
No need to bet on this that is why we have the market for. lol
[/quote]I agree on this… 0.0002 to 0.0001
Now I’m a hobby miner. I’m doing this to pass the time/learn stuff. I take a loss mining FTC currently compared with mining other coins, I accepted that. I consider it a hobby and I’m chipping in for a community. I don’t really want to be checking charts everyday. I’m one of the people who is technically taking one for the team while others rake in money from the pump and dumps. As time goes on I feel like I am missing out and just giving other people money out of my pocket while allowing bot traders to make money. People mining FTC will eventually feel this way more and more. Really, people mining any new coin but we just happen to be FTC. Something to watch out for and keep in the back of you mind. [b]Don’t take this as me whining [/b]but as making a[b] concerned statement[/b]. I want FTC to succeed. I’d be happy to just make money back on my hardware investment but o’well.
I think the realistic hash rate of contributors is around 50 or 60 MHashes, everyone else is just experimenting with it. which will probably put next re-target in about 20+ days. If people are gonna work on anything next with the coin they will need to address this… A good example on all of this is to look at is mincoin. Once it’s diff goes to 2 it’s hash rate literally drops from 120 Mhash to like 20 Mhash and it does it in almost a days time. I don’t want us to be mincoin. This is what quick diff adjust do. My 2 cents or 0.002 ftc
-
[quote name=“jeremiel” post=“8971” timestamp=“1370226435”]
[quote author=Smoothie link=topic=1119.msg8810#msg8810 date=1370177603]
[quote author=justabitoftime link=topic=1119.msg8807#msg8807 date=1370176824]
[quote author=Smoothie link=topic=1119.msg8804#msg8804 date=1370175292]
[quote author=zerodrama link=topic=1119.msg8803#msg8803 date=1370174870]
@SmoothieYou can’t hit a target price without others thinking the same thing. And you need others to just bot trade or lose their nerve.
You need both short term trades and long term trades and both calculated trades and impulsive trades.You’re going to see the population of dump traders go down and be replaced by long haul traders. This is going to be an invisible wall against the price drop.
[/quote]I agree. Hence why i said 0.0003 to 0.0001 price. That is a big range.
[/quote]I’m willing to bet 1000 LTC that we’ll hit at least .002 in the next 7 months. If interested, please drop me a PM with odds and escrow you want to use.
I could be wrong, however, with the merchant tools, continued community interest and coin direction… I like my chances. Might be willing to jump it to 2000 LTC for the right odds.
Hit me with a PM…
[/quote]I’m not saying the price wont go there.
I’m saying before it does it will bottom out in the levels I mentioned.
No need to bet on this that is why we have the market for. lol
[/quote]I agree on this… 0.0002 to 0.0001
Now I’m a hobby miner. I’m doing this to pass the time/learn stuff. I take a loss mining FTC currently compared with mining other coins, I accepted that. I consider it a hobby and I’m chipping in for a community. I don’t really want to be checking charts everyday. I’m one of the people who is technically taking one for the team while others rake in money from the pump and dumps. As time goes on I feel like I am missing out and just giving other people money out of my pocket while allowing bot traders to make money. People mining FTC will eventually feel this way more and more. Really, people mining any new coin but we just happen to be FTC. Something to watch out for and keep in the back of you mind. [b]Don’t take this as me whining [/b]but as making a[b] concerned statement[/b]. I want FTC to succeed. I’d be happy to just make money back on my hardware investment but o’well.
I think the realistic hash rate of contributors is around 50 or 60 MHashes, everyone else is just experimenting with it. which will probably put next re-target in about 20+ days. If people are gonna work on anything next with the coin they will need to address this… A good example on all of this is to look at is mincoin. Once it’s diff goes to 2 it’s hash rate literally drops from 120 Mhash to like 20 Mhash and it does it in almost a days time. I don’t want us to be mincoin. This is what quick diff adjust do. My 2 cents or 0.002 ftc
[/quote]Thanks for the comment. All these issues are being addressed. Remember, this is a young coin… there’s only so many hours a day volunteers can put towards the project.
-
And as such it should be considered still young.
Invest only as much as you are able to lose.
Bear markets can be long and drawn out.
FTC can be successful but it is time that instills confidence, not large quantities of press releases.
-
[quote name=“Smoothie” post=“8977” timestamp=“1370231499”]
And as such it should be considered still young.Invest only as much as you are able to lose.
Bear markets can be long and drawn out.
FTC can be successful but it is time that instills confidence, not large quantities of press releases.
[/quote]I appreciate the feedback. As I’ve said time and time before, I’m simply an investor with a c-level background I’m willing to donate to Feathercoin. If someone else wants to lead this group, I would be more than happy to do something else with my free time. Until that day, I’ll continue to do what I can. We have 11 different teams working on projects, it’s not like I’m sitting around ‘playing on the Internet’. [b]If you want to help[/b] push us forward, please let me know which project team you want to join. While it’s important to be reminded what still needs to be done, it’s more important for active participation.
So many want to talk about about how the walls need repainting, very few want to pick up a brush. Look forward to hearing how you want to get us closer to our goals. Until then, I’ll go back to work.
